打造跨境行业“温度计”和“晴雨表” 连连国际正式官宣LianLian跨境商家信心指数

Core Insights - The LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index for 2025 indicates that cross-border sellers are facing cost and competitive pressures while maintaining confidence and investment in future operations [1][3] Group 1: Index Overview - The LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index consists of a total index, a current index, and a future expectations index, with values above 100 indicating optimism, equal to 100 indicating neutrality, and below 100 indicating pessimism [1] - In 2025, the total index remained stable between 105 and 119, while the current index fluctuated between 84 and 93, indicating a cautious attitude among sellers regarding the current operating environment [3] Group 2: Divergence in Seller Sentiment - The divergence between the current index and the future expectations index reveals a trend where sellers, despite facing challenges such as high costs and increased competition, maintain strong optimism about future sales performance and industry recovery [3] - This "current pressure, future potential" sentiment characterizes the unique confidence landscape in the cross-border trade sector for 2025 [3] Group 3: Category-Specific Insights - Different product categories exhibit significant structural divergence due to variations in product characteristics, target markets, policy sensitivity, and supply chain complexity [4] - Categories like Health & Beauty and Automotive & Industrial showed higher confidence levels than the total index, benefiting from global consumer demand and strong cost transfer capabilities [4] - Conversely, categories such as Consumer Electronics, Home & Garden, and Fashion & Apparel experienced notable fluctuations in confidence, influenced by promotional cycles, tariff policies, and inventory cycles [5] Group 4: Recommendations for Sellers - Sellers are advised to shift focus from "universal growth" to exploring "structural opportunities," particularly in resilient categories like Health & Beauty, while being strategic in volatile categories like Consumer Electronics and Fashion [5] - For categories sensitive to tariffs and compliance regulations, such as Toys and Pet Supplies, sellers should proactively address compliance requirements to establish "compliance barriers" [5] Group 5: Market Context and Future Outlook - In 2025, China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached 2.75 trillion yuan, a 69.7% increase from 2020, highlighting the sector's resilience and its role as a key driver of foreign trade growth [6] - The evolving international trade environment, intense platform competition, and changing policies create a new normal of uncertainty for cross-border merchants [6] - The LianLian Cross-Border Merchant Confidence Index serves as a valuable data reference and strategic guide for sellers and industry participants, filling a gap in the quantitative confidence index for the domestic cross-border e-commerce sector [6]