拐点已至，板块迅速起飞

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a significant turnaround driven by supply-side reforms, demand recovery, and the emergence of new productive forces, indicating a favorable investment environment for 2026 [31]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw collective gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.01% [1]. - The oil and petrochemical sector experienced a rapid increase, with the "three major oil companies" showing significant gains, which in turn boosted the chemical industry ETF E Fund (516570) by 1.92% [1]. Group 2: Oil Price and Demand Forecast - As of January 22, the Brent crude oil benchmark price was $64.92 per barrel, up 5.85% from the beginning of the month [3]. - The International Energy Agency's report predicts that global oil demand will grow by an average of 930,000 barrels per day by 2026, exceeding previous forecasts [3]. Group 3: Chemical Sector Dynamics - The chemical sector has seen a net inflow of funds, with the E Fund ETF rising over 24% in the last 25 trading days, reaching a new high since 2022 [5]. - The industry has transitioned from a prolonged capacity digestion phase, with capital expenditure peaks established, signaling the end of a multi-year expansion cycle [8]. Group 4: Inventory and Consumption Trends - The inventory cycle is shifting from "passive destocking" to "active restocking," with inventory levels in many segments at historical lows due to recovering downstream consumption [11]. - Any minor demand fluctuations could lead to significant price volatility as the industry moves away from high inventory pressures [11]. Group 5: Policy Influence - The central government's policy shift aims to prevent "involutionary" competition, establishing new operational principles for the industry [14]. - The introduction of the "Petrochemical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes strict control over new capacity and scientific regulation to prevent oversupply [14]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector's valuation recovery is supported by a combination of low valuations and an anticipated earnings rebound, with the chemical industry ETF currently having a PE ratio of 16.09 and a dividend yield of 2.81% [22]. - The overall net profit of the petrochemical industry index is expected to grow by 8.78% in 2026, indicating a stabilization in profitability [24]. Group 7: ETF Advantages - The E Fund chemical industry ETF (516570) offers a cost-effective investment option with a low fee structure of 0.2% per year, significantly lower than similar products [29]. - The ETF's portfolio includes high-growth material leaders and traditional refining giants, providing a balanced strategy to capture both beta and alpha returns [27].