美联储主席人选反复生变，特朗普最想要的还是贝森特？

Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America highlights the critical phase in the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair, suggesting that while popular candidates like Rieder and Waller are in focus, Treasury Secretary Basant may be the "hidden candidate" who meets the three essential criteria for the position [1][2]. Candidate Analysis - The current landscape shows a shift in market attention towards Rieder and Waller as the shortcomings of popular candidates Hassett and Warsh become apparent [2]. - Rieder has gained significant support, being viewed as a respected market insider with potential bipartisan support in the Senate, while advocating for a loosening of monetary policy [4]. - Waller, as a traditionalist within the Federal Reserve, has demonstrated strong policy judgment and maintains a focus on labor market stability, but his commitment to central bank independence may conflict with Trump's desire to reshape the Fed [6]. Candidate Shortcomings - Hassett's loyalty to Trump raises concerns about his ability to maintain the Fed's independence and continue anti-inflation policies, leading to a decline in his betting market odds [3]. - Warsh, despite attempting to align with the White House, holds a traditional hawkish stance that contradicts Trump's expectations for significant rate cuts [3]. Political Dynamics - The selection process lacks urgency, with the Trump team potentially delaying the final decision until June to ensure the new chair can lead the subsequent rate-cutting cycle [2]. - The gap between current market expectations and political realities is becoming a key variable influencing monetary policy direction [2].