成本高企叠加增长乏力 南侨食品 2025 年业绩创上市新低

Core Viewpoint - The company, Nanjiao Foods, is forecasting a significant decline in its 2025 annual performance, with net profit expected to drop by 78.39% to 81.99% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since its A-share listing in May 2021 [1][2] Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is between 36.26 million yuan and 43.52 million yuan, while the non-recurring net profit is expected to be between 30.88 million yuan and 37.05 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 79.71% to 83.09% [1] - The company's revenue for 2025 is anticipated to be 3.065 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 3% compared to the previous year, indicating ongoing revenue growth challenges [1] Cost Pressures - The primary reasons for the profit decline include sustained pressure on costs and unfavorable changes in product structure, with significant increases in raw material prices such as palm oil and coconut oil [1][2] - The average price of palm oil increased compared to 2024, while coconut oil reached a historical high, further exacerbating the company's cost burden [1] Profitability Challenges - The inability to effectively pass on rising costs to the product side has contributed to the profit decline, with the company's gross margin dropping from 24.47% in the previous year to 19.01% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The gross margin for the third quarter of 2025 was only 17.05%, marking a new low since the company went public [2] Historical Performance Trends - The company's net profit has shown significant volatility from 2022 to 2024, with figures of 161 million yuan, 232 million yuan, and 201 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -56.41%, 44.73%, and -13.34% respectively [2] - The company has struggled with stable profitability, despite attempts to adjust product pricing and structure in response to rising raw material costs [2] Strategic Response - In light of the dual pressures on performance and revenue, the company has proposed strategies focusing on cost control, market positioning, and product innovation to reverse its operational decline [3] - The challenges faced by Nanjiao Foods are indicative of broader industry issues related to raw material price fluctuations, while also highlighting the company's weaknesses in cost transmission and product structure adjustments [3] Industry Context - The baking industry is currently experiencing steady market expansion, with opportunities arising in segments such as frozen baking and local raw material substitution, which could provide a foundation for the company's performance recovery [3] - The company must effectively implement cost control measures, achieve genuine scale effects from channel expansion, and optimize revenue structure through product innovation to overcome its operational challenges [3]