挪威央行维持4%利率不变，牵动全球能源贸易与资产定价

Group 1 - The Norwegian central bank maintains the policy interest rate at 4%, effective from January 23, aligning with market expectations [1] - The central bank emphasizes that future interest rate decisions will heavily depend on economic data, with a potential for one or two rate cuts in 2026 [1] - Current inflation in Norway, while significantly lower than before, remains above the 2% target, with core inflation hovering around 3% since autumn 2024 [1] Group 2 - Following a surprise rate cut of 25 basis points to 4.25% in June 2025, the Norwegian central bank's actions align with a global trend towards monetary easing [2] - The central bank's forward guidance indicates potential further cuts to 4.0% in September and 3.75% in December, reinforcing expectations for global liquidity easing [2] - The gradual adjustments by the Norwegian central bank provide a reference for other central banks to balance inflation control and economic growth, helping to mitigate market volatility caused by policy divergence [2] Group 3 - After the June 2025 rate cut, the Norwegian krone depreciated by 1%-1.3% against the US dollar and euro, strengthening the relative position of these currencies [3] - The appreciation of the krone in March 2025, due to a rate hike and increased energy export surplus, negatively impacted the competitiveness of other Nordic currencies [3] - Fluctuations in the krone also affect other energy-exporting currencies, such as the Canadian dollar and Russian ruble, contributing to global currency volatility [3]