邦达亚洲:市场的避险情绪降温 黄金早盘回落

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged during the upcoming meeting, with a significant reduction in the likelihood of rate cuts this quarter, potentially delaying monetary easing until after Chairman Powell's term ends in May [1] - A survey of 100 economists indicated that all respondents expect the Fed to keep the benchmark rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75% during the January 27-28 meeting, with 58% predicting rates will remain unchanged throughout the first quarter [1] - This marks a notable shift from last month, where most economists anticipated at least one rate cut in March [1] Group 2 - According to a report by Shenwan Hongyuan, U.S. inflation may exhibit a "high then low" characteristic in 2026, influenced by tariff transmission and tax cuts, with potential core PCE year-on-year rates of 2.8%, 2.6%, and 2.5% depending on the tariff transmission rate [2] - The macroeconomic outlook for the first half of the year suggests resilient growth, stable employment, and peak inflation, leading the Fed to potentially pause rate cuts, while the second half may see a resumption of rate cuts as deflation begins [2] - Key economic data to watch includes the UK CBI retail sales balance, U.S. Q3 GDP final annualized rate, initial jobless claims, personal spending, and PCE price index for November [2] Group 3 - Gold prices surged to a new historical high, driven by heightened risk aversion due to trade tensions, although recent comments from President Trump eased some of these tensions, limiting further gains [3] - The current trading price for gold is around 4820, with resistance expected near 4870 and support at approximately 4770 [3] Group 4 - The USD/JPY pair experienced slight gains, trading around 158.70, supported by short covering and a rebound in the dollar index due to easing trade tensions, although concerns over potential Bank of Japan intervention limited upside [4] - Resistance is noted around 159.50, with support at approximately 158.00 [4] Group 5 - The USD/CAD pair rebounded slightly, trading at around 1.3820, supported by short covering and technical buying near the 1.3800 level, while rising oil prices constrained further gains [5] - Resistance is expected near 1.3900, with support around 1.3700 [5]