2025年废钢市场回顾及2026年展望

Price Trends - In 2025, the average price of scrap steel is projected to be 2244.74 CNY/ton, a decrease of 222.52 CNY/ton compared to 2024. The price fluctuated between a high of 2294 CNY/ton in August and September and a low of 2175 CNY/ton in mid-January [1] - The price volatility range for scrap steel is expected to narrow, reducing market arbitrage opportunities [1] Supply and Demand - Total supply of scrap steel in 2025 is estimated at 280 million tons, an increase of 8.55% year-on-year, with a decrease in self-produced scrap and an increase in recycled and industrial scrap [2] - Scrap steel consumption in 2025 is projected to be 264 million tons, up 8.19% from 2024, with a notable increase in consumption from Hebei province, which is expected to reach 55 million tons, a 22.09% increase [2] Profitability - In 2025, the average profit for long-process steel enterprises in Jiangsu is expected to be 98 CNY/ton, a 47.7% increase from 66 CNY/ton in 2024. However, independent electric arc furnace profits are projected to be -11 CNY/ton, down from 16 CNY/ton in 2024 [3] - The average scrap ratio for long-process steel enterprises is expected to increase to 13.75%, a rise of 1.71 percentage points year-on-year [3] Imports - The import volume of recycled steel raw materials is expected to be 250,000 tons in 2025, reflecting a modest increase of 0.89% from 2024, remaining at a low level due to price discrepancies and strict customs regulations [4] 2026 Market Outlook - The scrap steel market is anticipated to continue showing a dual increase in supply and demand in 2026, influenced by policy and cost factors [5] - The utilization rate of electric arc furnace capacity is expected to improve, which will enhance scrap steel demand, while the introduction of carbon emission taxes may encourage long-process steel enterprises to increase their scrap usage [6] - The projected scrap steel consumption for 2026 is around 280 million tons, with supply expected to reach approximately 320 million tons, indicating a tight balance in the market [6]