算力税第二波，CPU涨价

Core Insights - The global semiconductor market is undergoing structural changes, with the CPU sector gaining significant attention from capital markets as it transitions from a traditionally mature category to a focal point for investment [1][3] - The demand for CPUs is driven by the increasing application of AI agents, which require substantial computational resources for tasks beyond traditional AI training, leading to a re-evaluation of CPU's role in the computing ecosystem [3][9] Market Dynamics - Intel's stock reached a nearly four-year high with a year-to-date increase of over 44%, while AMD continues its upward trend; in the A-share market, Longxin Technology and Haiguang Information recorded significant daily gains of 20% and over 13%, respectively [1] - The market is experiencing a re-pricing of the "computing power tax," with CPUs becoming the second wave of cost bearers following the surge in GPU demand due to AI training [1] Supply and Demand Trends - The consensus among institutions indicates that the current changes in the CPU market are not cyclical but are driven by structural transformations due to the scaling of AI applications [3] - IDC forecasts that the number of active AI agents will grow from approximately 28.6 million in 2025 to 2.216 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 139%, suggesting a significant increase in CPU demand [3] - Supply constraints are evident, with Intel's advanced process capacity utilization reaching 120%-130%, and TSMC's advanced packaging capacity bottlenecks extending CPU delivery times from the normal 8-10 weeks to over 24 weeks [3][8] Technological Shifts - The traditional focus on GPU for AI computation is shifting as AI agents evolve to require more complex task execution, with CPUs handling 80%-90% of the workload related to task orchestration and data processing [4][6] - The transition to a "sandbox execution" model in AI platforms is creating new demand characteristics for CPU resources, which are now more closely tied to user scale and task concurrency rather than GPU quantity [5][6] Pricing and Future Outlook - The supply-demand imbalance is leading to expectations of price increases, with Intel and AMD planning to raise server CPU prices by 10%-15% due to the anticipated supply constraints [8] - The strategic value of CPUs is being reassessed as they become central to system management and resource coordination in the evolving landscape of AI applications [9]