3 6 Ke·2026-01-22 12:53Core Viewpoint - The scarcity of products, exemplified by Nongfu Spring's Zodiac Water, acts as a catalyst in the market, driving demand and speculation [2][15]. Group 1: Product Overview - Nongfu Spring launched Zodiac Water in 2016, starting with the "Monkey Year" bottle, and has since released a new design annually, accumulating 11 versions by 2026 [2]. - The water source is from Changbai Mountain's Moyan Spring, and the bottle design took three years to complete, with the company stating it has always been "given away, not sold" [2]. - A complete set of Zodiac Water from 2016 to 2025 is being traded for as high as 1680 yuan on second-hand platforms [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - A small market for Zodiac Water has emerged on second-hand platforms, with prices varying significantly based on the year and rarity of the bottles [3]. - The "Horse Year" version, newly released, is priced around 35 yuan per set, while the "Monkey Year" version can reach 300 to 800 yuan due to its limited availability [3]. - Resellers are actively purchasing Zodiac Water, with dedicated shops appearing on platforms like Douyin, indicating a growing speculative market [5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Participants in the market include collectors, resellers, and casual buyers, with motivations ranging from investment to personal enjoyment [12][14]. - Some consumers view collecting Zodiac Water as a way to achieve personal goals or as a form of emotional connection tied to cultural significance [15]. - The psychological appeal of completing a collection over 12 years mirrors behaviors seen in other collectible markets, such as stamp or card collecting [15]. Group 4: Speculation and Risks - The increasing prices of earlier Zodiac Water versions are fueling speculative behavior, with many hoping to sell complete sets for higher prices in the future [17]. - However, potential risks exist if the brand alters its strategy or if consumer interest shifts, which could lead to price volatility [17]. - The phenomenon of excessive speculation may detract from the original enjoyment of collecting, highlighting the need for caution among consumers [17].