再武装”大势席卷全球 摩根大通高呼“逢低买入军工股

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a significant short-term decline in global defense stocks, including European defense stocks, presenting a major opportunity for investors to buy on dips, as the sector is expected to enter a long-term upward cycle driven by global rearmament [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The European defense stock index compiled by Goldman Sachs fell by 3.0% on Thursday, marking three consecutive days of decline [2] - Rheinmetall AG, a major player in the defense sector, saw its stock drop by 5.6% over the past three trading days [2] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to buy European defense stocks during any weakness, as the sector is in the early stages of a new global defense spending cycle that could last another decade [3] - The sensitivity of military stocks to geopolitical news has increased, particularly after significant price increases in 2025, with Rheinmetall's stock priced at 40 times its expected earnings, double the valuation from a year ago [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The ongoing peace negotiations surrounding Russia and Ukraine remain a focal point for the defense market, with expectations that the conflict will persist until one side is exhausted [5] - Analysts suggest that the current global geopolitical climate is characterized by chaos and restructuring, making defense stocks a more favorable investment compared to traditional defensive sectors [6] Group 4: Sector Performance - Defense and aerospace stocks in the U.S. have recorded a 36% increase in 2025, while European defense stocks have surged by 60%, outperforming the semiconductor sector's 45% increase [6] - The international rearmament trend is expected to become a structural theme in global defense demand, with major defense contractors experiencing record international backlogs [8] Group 5: Key Players - Raytheon Technologies (RTX) is highlighted as a core beneficiary in the international defense sector due to its higher international revenue exposure compared to peers [7] - The company's defense systems, such as the Patriot missile system, are widely used by multiple countries, enhancing its market position [9]