ATFX:美11月PCE预期2.8% 通胀形势稳定

Group 1 - The U.S. Commerce Department is set to release the November core PCE index year-on-year, which was delayed due to government shutdown impacts on statistical work [1] - Financial institutions expect the core PCE to be 2.8%, above the moderate inflation standard of 2% [1] - The accuracy of the November data is in question due to the ongoing government shutdown affecting data collection [1] Group 2 - The long-term trend indicates that PCE data is stabilizing, with expectations for the core PCE to drop below 3% by May 2024, marking the arrival of the "2" era [3] - The November core CPI year-on-year is reported at 2.6%, down from 3% in September, suggesting a potential decline in the PCE data as well [3] - There remains a possibility that the final PCE value could be below the expected 2.8% [3] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index continues to show a volatile trend, with a range between 96.34 and 100.23, and has not effectively broken through these levels [6] - Recent price movements indicate that the dollar's rebound is being replaced by a downward trend, complicating bullish sentiment [6] - Gold and silver prices are influenced by the PCE data, primarily through fluctuations in the dollar index, with gold reaching a new high of $4888.39 and silver at $95.86 [6][7] Group 4 - The weak state of the dollar provides an opportunity for gold and silver prices to rise, with expectations that if the PCE data does not significantly exceed expectations, the upward trend in precious metals will likely continue [7]