长债利率久违“回血”

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from the central bank have intensified divergences in the bond market, with the LPR remaining unchanged for eight consecutive months, leading to new dynamics in market sentiment and bond yields [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term bond yields have experienced a rare rebound since January 20, with the 30-year government bond yield dropping by 2.75 basis points and 1.6 basis points, reaching 2.261% [2]. - However, this upward trend in bond prices was not sustained, as the market saw a decline on January 22, with government bond futures falling across the board and yields on major interest rate bonds rising [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield also continued to decline, reaching approximately 1.83% on January 21 [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The issuance situation in the primary market has been a significant factor driving the recent rebound in bond prices, with a recent issuance of 160 billion yuan of 7-year fixed-rate bonds seeing a subscription multiple of 5.91 times and a winning rate lower than the secondary market [3]. - The latest LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year and 3.5% for the 5-year, reflecting the central bank's cautious stance amid economic conditions [3]. - The central bank's liquidity management strategy includes maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system, with recent operations indicating a proactive approach to market liquidity [4]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in Chinese bonds is viewed positively, with reports indicating that commercial banks have been increasing their holdings of interest rate bonds [5]. - The recent sell-off in Japanese and U.S. bonds has led to speculation that foreign capital may be shifting towards Chinese government bonds as a safe haven [6]. - As of November 2025, foreign institutions held 3.6 trillion yuan in Chinese bonds, with government bonds making up 56.2% of this total [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing deepening of the bond market's openness to foreign investment is expected to facilitate steady increases in foreign holdings of Chinese bonds in the medium to long term [7]. - Despite short-term fluctuations in foreign holdings due to various market factors, the overall trend suggests a positive outlook for foreign investment in China's bond market [7].