纯苯 下游需求较弱

Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of the year, the price of pure benzene futures has been continuously rising, with a cumulative increase of 7.38% since January 5 [1] Supply Side - The supply of pure benzene has remained stable recently, with the operating rate around 77%-78%, which may increase in the future. In February, several maintenance operations are expected to conclude, leading to an overall increase in supply [2] - New production capacities have been added, including BASF's 180,000-ton cracking capacity in Zhanjiang and Hunan Petrochemical's 60,000-ton reforming capacity in January. However, overall supply is expected to decrease in the second quarter due to maintenance plans at several refineries [2] - By 2025, there is a significant oversupply of pure benzene anticipated, primarily due to high import volumes. South Korea plans to retire 2.7-3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity, which could lead to a reduction of over 500,000 tons in pure benzene capacity [2] Downstream Demand - Downstream demand shows a clear divergence. For styrene, the restart of several facilities is expected to increase overall production, supported by high processing margins [3] - In contrast, the demand for caprolactam may rise in the short term but is expected to decline later due to profit guidance. The current operating rate for PA6 is only 70%, indicating a significant drop [3] - The phenol market is seeing increased demand due to the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's phenol unit, although overall profit margins remain low [4] Inventory and Pricing - As of January 19, the port inventory of pure benzene was 297,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from the previous period. High inventory levels are primarily due to increased imports, with December imports reaching approximately 530,000 tons [4] - To alleviate high inventory pressure, pure benzene may need to offer discounts to downstream users, which could maintain the BZ-SM price spread at a strong level in the second quarter [4][7] Market Sensitivity - The styrene market is currently sensitive to news, with price fluctuations driven by various external factors. High styrene prices may lead to negative feedback, potentially impacting pure benzene prices [5][6] - The combination of high imports and weak downstream demand is likely to result in continued inventory accumulation, creating a supply-demand scenario where both supply and demand may increase in the short term [7]