又一巨头被市场抛弃？钻石价格缩水100倍，难清库存，黄金却涨疯

Core Viewpoint - The diamond industry is experiencing a significant downturn, marked by continuous price declines and a shift in consumer preferences towards lab-grown diamonds, leading to a re-evaluation of diamond's perceived value in the market [4][18]. Group 1: Price Declines and Market Dynamics - De Beers has significantly reduced the prices of rough diamonds over 0.75 carats, with estimated price cuts ranging from 10% to 15%, marking the fourth price reduction since 2023 [2][5]. - The company's current inventory exceeds $2 billion, and the transaction rate at auctions has been declining since 2024, indicating a challenging market environment [7]. - The U.S. import value of finished diamonds is projected to drop by 48% in 2025, with the RapNet diamond price index showing a more than 20% decline in the price of consumer-grade diamonds [9]. Group 2: Consumer Impact and Value Perception - The resale value of diamonds has plummeted, with a 99% depreciation for a diamond ring purchased for 18,000 yuan now valued at only 180 yuan, and a one-carat diamond ring originally bought for 100,000 yuan now estimated at less than 30,000 yuan [9]. - The harsh rules of the jewelry resale market mean that even one-carat natural diamonds only fetch 40-60% of their original price, contrasting sharply with the rising value of gold, which has increased over 400% in the past decade [9]. Group 3: Rise of Lab-Grown Diamonds - Lab-grown diamonds are emerging as a strong alternative to natural diamonds, with prices significantly lower—down from 8,000 yuan to 3,500 yuan for a one-carat lab-grown diamond, making them less than one-tenth the price of comparable natural diamonds [11]. - China's production of lab-grown diamonds is expected to reach 22 million carats in 2024, accounting for 63% of global output, which is driving prices down further [13]. - The shift in consumer behavior, particularly among younger demographics, reflects a preference for the value and ethical considerations of lab-grown diamonds, with their market share in diamond jewelry surpassing 40% in 2025 [13][15]. Group 4: Industry Restructuring - The diamond market is undergoing a profound restructuring, with natural diamonds retreating to the high-end collector segment while lab-grown diamonds dominate the mass market due to their cost-effectiveness and environmental appeal [16]. - De Beers' price cuts signal the collapse of the high-price marketing narrative that has historically supported diamond valuations, indicating a fundamental change in consumer perception [18]. - The transformation in the diamond industry highlights a victory of rational consumer behavior over traditional marketing narratives, suggesting that diamonds are now viewed more as ordinary jewelry rather than symbols of eternal commitment [19].