Can Amazon Stock Overcome Its 2026 Headwinds?

Core Insights - Amazon.com (AMZN) has faced significant stock declines exceeding 30% on three occasions in recent years, resulting in substantial market capitalization losses [2] - The company is currently under pressure from various risks, including cash flow issues, increasing competition, and legal challenges [3][4][5][6] Financial Performance - Amazon's free cash flow for the last twelve months has decreased to $14.8 billion, influenced by a $50.9 billion year-over-year increase in property and equipment acquisitions [9] - The company has raised its capital expenditure forecast for 2025 to $125 billion from $118 billion, with expectations for further increases in 2026 [9] - Revenue growth stands at 10.9% for the last twelve months and an average of 11.3% over the past three years, with a free cash flow margin of approximately 2.0% and an operating margin of 11.4% [10] Competitive Landscape - The North America segment is experiencing slowing revenue growth and margin compression due to rising logistics and marketing expenses [9] - Walmart's e-commerce sales have increased by 27% year-over-year, with marketplace revenue rising by 37%, indicating intensifying competition [9] Legal and Regulatory Environment - Amazon is facing ongoing legal costs and potential penalties, with a proposed class-action lawsuit regarding disability accommodations and an FTC lawsuit alleging anticompetitive practices [9] - The court has allowed the FTC case to proceed to trial, which is set for 2026 [9]