“美联储独立性”是伪命题？特朗普真正的目标：“金融压抑”与债务稀释

Group 1: Core Insights - The conflict between the White House and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is fundamentally a power struggle over policy control rather than merely a debate about central bank independence [1] - The Trump administration aims to lower interest rates to 1% to mask the growing sovereign debt risk and maintain asset bubbles, facilitating a hidden transfer of wealth through financial repression [1] - The Federal Reserve has become a key institution that can still check presidential power, especially as the influence of Congress and public institutions has weakened [1] Group 2: Historical Context of Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence became a widely accepted concept only recently, with New Zealand's 1990 legislation establishing an inflation-targeting framework being a significant milestone [2] - The historical context of central bank independence is rooted in the high inflation periods of the 1970s and 1980s, where governments delegated tough policy decisions to central banks to avoid political backlash [2] - There are ongoing debates about the theoretical basis and practical effectiveness of central bank independence, particularly regarding conflicting policy goals and limited control over key economic variables [2] Group 3: Limitations and Critiques of Central Banks - Central banks' reliance on core analytical models like NAIRU and the Phillips curve has faced criticism for their predictive effectiveness in real-world scenarios [3] - The decision-making bodies of central banks often consist of economists with similar academic backgrounds, which may limit the diversity and effectiveness of policy-making [3] - Historical performance of central banks has been questioned, particularly regarding their responses to economic crises and the long-term effects of their policies on asset bubbles and social inequality [4] Group 4: Political Motivations and Wealth Transfer - Trump's strategy involves appointing Federal Reserve governors who support his interest rate policies, aiming to obscure sovereign debt pressures and sustain market bubbles [6] - Lowering interest rates allows the government to continue expansionary fiscal policies, benefiting political and business supporters while diluting debt burdens through negative real interest rates [6] - This approach mirrors Trump's previous business strategies, characterized by high leverage and risk-taking, suggesting a continuity in his operational mindset [6] Group 5: Power Balance and Democratic Accountability - The debate over central bank independence reflects a restructuring of power balance within the U.S. political system, with the Federal Reserve serving as a critical check on executive power [7] - There is a growing populist sentiment favoring low interest rates and high growth, alongside increasing skepticism towards technocratic elites and their decision-making processes [7] - The surface-level discussion about central bank independence masks deeper issues of power distribution, democratic accountability, and institutional checks within the political economy [7]