Ge Long Hui·2026-01-22 20:40Company Performance - Anta brand's retail revenue decreased slightly in low single digits year-on-year in Q4 2025, while FILA brand's revenue increased in low single digits [1] - Other brands (excluding new brands added after early 2024) achieved a revenue growth of 35-40% year-on-year in Q4 2025, demonstrating strong performance [2] - The company maintained a stable offline discount rate at 71% and an online discount rate reduced by 2 percentage points to 50% year-on-year, with a slight increase in inventory turnover ratio above 5x at the end of the quarter [1] Brand Insights - FILA brand focused on experience upgrades and brand expression, with retail revenue growth in low single digits in Q4 2025, and significant online performance in categories like down jackets and dad shoes [1] - Descente brand achieved a revenue growth of 25-30% year-on-year, becoming the third brand in the group to reach a revenue of 10 billion [2] - Kolon Sport brand saw a revenue increase of 50-55%, indicating continued brand momentum [2] Future Outlook - The company aims for high-quality growth and healthy inventory and discount management in 2026, with several major events planned [2] - The management plans to continue investing in long-term brand development, although short-term operating profit margin may face some pressure [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The EPS forecast for 2025 is maintained at 4.71 yuan, while the 2026 forecast is adjusted down by 4.5% to 5.03 yuan, with a new forecast for 2027 at 5.45 yuan [2] - The target price is adjusted down by 4% to 110.91 HKD, corresponding to a 20x P/E for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 34% [2]