专访广开首席连平：“去美元化”浪潮下 金价或长期高位震荡

Economic Outlook for 2026 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for "qualitative effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth" in China's economy for 2026 [1] - The market is expected to present various trends and highlights, creating investment opportunities for investors [1] Monetary Policy and Credit Growth - Current domestic interest rates are at historical lows, with potential for further reduction; a small cut of 0.25-0.5 percentage points is likely in early 2026 [4] - Credit growth is expected to recover moderately, with structural characteristics; personal loans may see marginal improvement, while corporate loans will be the main support [4][5] - Total new credit is projected to be around 18 trillion yuan, with a slight increase in credit balance growth to 6.6% [5] Stock Market Trends - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are anticipated to continue a trend of oscillating upward, driven by corporate profit improvement and macro policy easing [7] - Policies to boost market confidence will include promoting the use of policy tools, guiding institutional investments, and optimizing listing conditions for tech companies [7] Bond Market Expectations - The bond market is expected to maintain a low-interest, high-volatility environment, with 10-year government bond yields projected between 1.6% and 1.9% [8] - Credit bond issuance is expected to grow steadily, particularly in short-duration high-grade credit bonds, with yields anticipated between 2.0% and 2.5% [8] Investment Opportunities in Emerging Industries - Future technology innovation policies will focus on breakthroughs in key areas such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, and biomanufacturing [9] - The semiconductor sector is expected to see significant growth driven by AI, while new energy and quantum technology are also highlighted as areas of potential investment [9] Global Economic Trends - The global economic landscape is transitioning from "high volatility" to "new equilibrium," with significant geopolitical and economic challenges ahead [10] - The U.S. stock market is expected to enter a phase of "high valuation, weak growth, and strong differentiation," with potential risks in AI sector valuations [10] Currency and Commodity Outlook - The RMB is likely to appreciate in a dual-directional fluctuation, supported by various domestic economic factors [11] - Gold prices are expected to experience "high-level fluctuations" with a target range of $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce, while silver may see more volatility due to its industrial properties [12][13]