Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing volatility near five-month highs, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid strong economic data and signals of a "pause" in interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1] - On January 22, 2025, the yields on various maturities of U.S. Treasuries showed mixed movements, with the 2-year yield rising by 2.98 basis points to 3.608%, and the 10-year yield increasing by 0.6 basis points to 4.245% [1] - The yield curve is flattening, with the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields narrowing by approximately 1.548 basis points to 63.881 basis points [1] Group 2 - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q3 2025 was reported at an annualized rate of 2.9%, aligning with market expectations, which supports the high yields in the Treasury market [2] - Federal Reserve officials, including those from Chicago, Kansas City, and San Francisco, have indicated a willingness to pause interest rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, citing a stable labor market and persistent inflation pressures [2] - Market expectations for the Fed to maintain interest rates in January are high, with a 95% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool [2] Group 3 - Global financial institutions are reassessing future policy paths and economic outlooks, with Dongwu Securities suggesting that a combination of looser fiscal and monetary policies could lead the U.S. economy to expand again by 2026 [2] - Continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to be a significant driver of economic growth, although it may also pose upward risks to inflation from the demand side [2] - Everbright Securities predicts that the yield curve for U.S. Treasuries may continue to steepen in 2026, with a clear path for interest rate cuts potentially lowering short-term yields while concerns over tariffs and fiscal sustainability keep long-term yields elevated [2]
美债市场高位盘整：PCE数据强化通胀压力 投资者重新审视“暂停降息”预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-22 23:52