Bitwise 研究: 比特币与黄金是投资的"矛与盾"？

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying investment portfolios with both gold and Bitcoin, suggesting a 15% allocation to each as proposed by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, due to the ongoing devaluation of the US dollar driven by rising federal debt and persistent deficit spending [1] Group 1: Market Downturns - Historical data shows that during major market downturns, gold has provided a buffer against losses, while Bitcoin has experienced significant declines. For instance, in 2018, the stock market fell by 19.34%, Bitcoin dropped by 40.29%, while gold increased by 5.76% [2] - In 2020, the stock market saw a decline of 33.79% due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with Bitcoin falling by 38.10% and gold only decreasing by 3.63% [3] - The 2022 market downturn, influenced by rising inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes, resulted in a 24.18% drop in the stock market, a 59.87% decline in Bitcoin, and an 8.95% decrease in gold [3] - In 2025, during a market correction due to trade war announcements, the stock market fell by 16.66%, Bitcoin decreased by 24.39%, while gold rose by 5.97% [3] Group 2: Market Recoveries - Following market downturns, Bitcoin has shown remarkable recovery potential. For example, after the 2018 downturn, Bitcoin surged by 78.99% in the subsequent year, while gold rose by 18.14% [4] - In 2020, after government stimulus measures, Bitcoin rebounded by 774.94%, compared to a 111.92% increase in gold [4] - In 2023, with inflation decreasing and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, Bitcoin increased by nearly 40.16%, while gold rose by 17.53% [5] Group 3: Portfolio Performance Analysis - A comprehensive analysis indicates that a portfolio including both gold and Bitcoin offers the best balance between cushioning market downturns and enhancing returns during recoveries. The combined portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.679, significantly higher than the traditional 60/40 portfolio's ratio of 0.237 [6] - While a portfolio solely consisting of Bitcoin has the highest Sharpe ratio of 0.875, it also exhibits greater volatility compared to a portfolio that includes both gold and Bitcoin [6] - The average returns and drawdowns for various portfolio configurations highlight the benefits of including both assets, with the traditional portfolio plus 15% gold showing a smaller average drawdown of -12.73% compared to -18.94% for a portfolio with 15% Bitcoin [8]