沪铜短期波动难改中期上行趋势 关注回调布局机会

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are expected to rise significantly and reach historical highs by 2026 due to supply concerns stemming from project delays and labor strikes, alongside geopolitical risks affecting resource supply chains [1] Supply Side Summary - The import concentrate treatment charge (TC) has decreased to -45.41 USD/ton, indicating ongoing tightness in copper supply [2] - Domestic copper smelting fees remain high, with southern and northern processing fees at 2000 CNY/ton and 1200 CNY/ton respectively, leading to increased recycled copper supply [2] - The production of electrolytic copper saw a month-on-month increase of 75,000 tons in December 2025, but is expected to decrease by 14,500 tons in January due to fewer statistical days [2] - The delay of the Mirador copper mine phase II is expected to reduce global copper mine output by 100,000 tons in 2026, exacerbating supply concerns [2] - The U.S. is considering imposing tariffs on refined copper, which could lead to structural shortages in non-U.S. regions [2] Demand Side Summary - The price difference between refined and scrap copper has surged past 6000 CNY/ton, indicating a significant substitution effect [3] - High copper prices have led to a decrease in operating rates for downstream industries such as scrap copper rods and electrical cables, reflecting weak demand [3] - Despite short-term demand pressures, long-term demand for copper is expected to grow due to its role in electrification and strategic reserves amid rising geopolitical risks [3] Inventory and Macro Environment Summary - Since January, China's social inventory has increased by 54,500 tons, while global total inventory rose by 67,000 tons to 981,000 tons [5] - The LME inventory continues to decline, providing strong support for copper prices, while the price difference between COMEX and LME has narrowed significantly [5] - Geopolitical risks are expected to drive demand for strategic metals, while the short-term strength of the U.S. dollar may limit copper price increases [5] - The current market dynamics reflect a conflict between short-term pressures and mid-term bullish trends, with high prices suppressing demand and leading to inventory accumulation [7]