2026年中国银行个人金融全球资产配置白皮书-中国银行

Macro Overview - The global economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in 2026, with growth projected at 3.1% and inflation decreasing to 3.7% [1][4] - China's economy is anticipated to stabilize and rebound with a growth rate of 4.7% to 5.0% due to supportive macro policies [1][4] - The US economy is likely to maintain potential growth, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates three more times and expand its balance sheet [1][4] Equity Market Insights - The A-share market is expected to maintain a slow bull market, potentially evolving into a long bull market supported by policy dividends, profit recovery, and long-term capital inflows [1][6] - The Hong Kong stock market will benefit from the internationalization of RMB assets and external liquidity easing, continuing its value reassessment [1][6] - Non-US stock markets are projected to outperform US markets, with European and Japanese stock markets expected to rise moderately, while emerging markets present structural opportunities [1][6][9] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, leading to a downward shift in US Treasury yields [1][7] - China's 10-year government bond yields are expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9%, with a moderately loose funding environment but limited downward yield movement [1][7] - UK bonds present high allocation value, while German bonds are expected to perform relatively weakly [1][7] Commodity Market Trends - Gold is expected to continue its long-term upward trend, potentially reaching new historical highs, while silver's price is supported by multiple attributes but may experience increased volatility [2][5] - Copper and aluminum prices are anticipated to rise due to demand from AI development and new energy sectors [2][5] - The oil market remains in a state of oversupply, with prices expected to fluctuate around cost levels [2][5] Currency Market Dynamics - The foreign exchange market shows a downward shift in the US dollar, with non-US currencies exhibiting differentiation [2][6] - The Chinese yuan is likely to experience two-way fluctuations, appreciating against the US dollar [2][6] - The euro and Malaysian ringgit are expected to perform strongly, while the Canadian dollar is anticipated to weaken due to tariffs and oil price impacts [2][6]