【中诚研究】2025年四季度公募基金市场表现及展望

Core Viewpoint - The public fund market in China is experiencing rapid growth in net asset value, driven by domestic economic recovery, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased issuance of new funds, particularly FOF funds, despite a slowdown in stock fund performance [1][2][3]. Group 1: Overall Characteristics of the Public Fund Market - The public fund market shows a rapid year-on-year growth in net asset value, with a total scale reaching 316,492.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.03% [3]. - The net asset value of funds reached 371,462.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.14% [3]. - The structure of newly issued funds indicates a stable proportion of stock funds, while bond funds have seen a year-end rebound, and FOF funds have experienced significant growth [2][3]. Group 2: New Fund Issuance - In Q4, 2,798.74 billion yuan of new public funds were established, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.35% [7]. - The monthly establishment scale increased from 742.86 billion yuan in October to 1,109.21 billion yuan in December [7]. - The market's performance has been mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising by 2.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 300 experienced slight declines [7]. Group 3: FOF Fund Growth - The issuance scale of FOF funds surged, with their proportion rising from 0.98% in September to 23.92% in October, and maintaining 17.95% and 9.70% in November and December, respectively [11]. - FOF funds have become a highlight due to their cross-asset allocation capabilities amid market fluctuations [11]. Group 4: Performance of Various Fund Types - Stock fund performance has slowed, with only 38.63% of ordinary stock funds achieving positive returns in the last three months [13]. - Passive index funds showed significant style differentiation, with 46.94% achieving positive returns, driven by sectors like industrial metals and insurance [16]. - Bond funds have shown recovery, with 97.30% of medium- to long-term pure bond funds achieving positive returns [19]. Group 5: Commodity Fund Performance - Among commodity funds, 96.36% achieved positive returns, with the highest being the Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures A, yielding 62.43% [22]. - The demand for strategic resources has increased, highlighting the financial attributes of metals like copper and tin [22]. Group 6: Future Outlook for the Public Fund Market - The economic strategy for 2026 emphasizes "stability while seeking progress" and aims to implement more proactive macro policies to expand domestic demand [23]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and asset purchasing program are expected to improve liquidity conditions, benefiting global markets and commodities priced in dollars [23]. - Investment strategies should remain moderately aggressive, increasing equity asset allocation, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors [23].