大行看中国：2026中国经济怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP for 2025 is projected to reach approximately 140.2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5% compared to the previous year, despite challenges such as weak domestic consumption and a prolonged real estate crisis [2] Economic Growth Dynamics - The economic growth in 2025 is characterized by a "high in the front and low in the back" trend, with quarterly GDP growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5%, the latter being the lowest quarterly growth in three years [2] - The growth drivers have shifted predominantly to the tertiary sector, which saw a value-added growth of 5.4%, and foreign trade exports, which increased by 6.1% year-on-year [2] Export vs. Domestic Demand - The economic landscape in 2025 shows a stark "dual-track divergence," with strong export growth (over 10% to emerging markets) contrasted by sluggish domestic demand, where retail sales growth hovered around 3% [3] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP decreased by 3.2 percentage points compared to the previous year, and fixed asset investment growth was only 2.8%, with real estate investment declining by 4.5% [3] Economic Predictions for 2026 - Predictions for China's economic growth in 2026 range between 4.5% and 5%, reflecting a consensus among over 30 global institutions [6][7] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a growth rate of 4.5%, citing external demand uncertainties and the lagging effects of real estate adjustments as key factors [6] Policy Measures - The 2026 economic strategy emphasizes a combination of proactive fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy, with a focus on "stabilizing growth while preventing risks" [10] - Fiscal spending is projected to reach 29.7 trillion yuan in 2025, with an increase in the broad deficit scale anticipated for 2026 [10] Structural Adjustments - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with anticipated reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to lower financing costs [11] - Structural tools will be upgraded to support sectors like agriculture, small enterprises, and technological innovation, reflecting a targeted approach to economic support [11] Balancing Growth and Risks - The economic outlook for 2026 presents both opportunities and challenges, with a potential recovery in domestic demand driven by fiscal support and consumer incentives [14] - Risks remain in the real estate sector and local government debt, with expectations of a narrowing decline in real estate sales but ongoing vigilance required for corporate defaults [15]