华创证券：技术壁垒到估值高地 建议关注国产商发产业链三条线索

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities emphasizes the significant potential of the domestic commercial aviation engine market in China, which is currently in its early stages with a market penetration rate of less than 1% for domestic engines. The focus is on three key areas within the domestic commercial aviation engine supply chain: core component manufacturers, high-temperature alloy suppliers, and raw material suppliers [1]. Group 1: Commercial Aviation Engine Analysis - Core components hold significant weight in the aviation engine structure, with the hot end being crucial for manufacturing and replacement. The FADEC control system is the mainstream technology [1]. - Value distribution shows that blades account for 26%, short nacelles for 25%, other parts for 21%, and control systems for 14% of the total value [1]. - The aftermarket is dominated by main manufacturers, with lifecycle value being high. According to Rolls-Royce, after-sales revenue can reach up to four times the initial sale price, making the aftermarket a critical source of profit and cash flow [1]. Group 2: Business Model of the Commercial Aviation Engine Industry - Main manufacturers operate on a "super tool holder + long-term blade" profit model, characterized by oligopolistic market control (CFM International, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, GE) and high barriers to entry due to technology, funding, and cycle constraints. They offer significant discounts on initial pricing to capture market share while locking in customers through bundled services like TotalCare [2]. - Suppliers benefit from high barriers to entry and can become hidden champions within the industry. The collaboration model between main manufacturers and suppliers has stringent entry requirements, with international certification taking 6-10 years [2]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain Valuation - Main manufacturers have a stable valuation center, anchored by long-term growth potential. The average PE ratio for global main manufacturers is 30.2 times, with GE Aerospace at 42 times, Safran at 31 times, and Rolls-Royce at 18 times [3]. - Suppliers enjoy a valuation premium due to their scarcity and high certainty, with an average PE ratio of 68.5 times for key suppliers, significantly higher than that of main manufacturers. This premium is driven by strong technological scarcity and stable demand across new aircraft and maintenance scenarios [3]. Group 4: Potential of China's Commercial Aviation Engine Market - The Changjiang series of commercial aviation engines aims to break through key technological barriers, with the CJ1000A and CJ2000 models targeting narrow-body and wide-body aircraft, respectively [4]. - China's aviation market is poised for significant growth, with projections indicating that by 2044, the country will have 10,175 passenger aircraft, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.4% from 2024 to 2044. The total scale of the commercial aviation engine market in China is expected to exceed 2.6 trillion yuan over the next 20 years, with an annualized scale of over 130 billion yuan [4].