Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 for Blokko (00325) by 19% and 17% to 650 million and 870 million yuan respectively, while introducing a net profit forecast of 1.07 billion yuan for 2027. The target price has been reduced by 26% to 100 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 40% based on adjusted P/E ratios for 2026 and 2027 [1]. Group 1: Company Current Situation - CICC conducted a company survey and engaged in in-depth discussions with management regarding strategic reviews, new product performance, and international expansion. The firm believes that the company will focus on trending categories in 2026, which is expected to enhance performance certainty, with a continued emphasis on new product categories and international market performance [2]. Group 2: Focus on Key Categories in 2026 - In 2025, the company explored business boundaries through a global strategy targeting all demographics and price points. While the 9.9 yuan products for the lower market performed well, some categories, such as female-targeted products, did not meet internal goals, which diluted resources and affected profit performance. In 2026, the company plans to stabilize the new product launch rhythm and improve the success rate of individual products. Financially, with a mature team structure and stable personnel size, operational leverage is expected to manifest. The company aims to control the proportion of low-margin products, which, combined with economies of scale, is anticipated to stabilize and improve gross margins [3]. Group 3: Successful Development of Building Block Vehicles - The company has established building block vehicles as one of its two core strategic categories alongside building block figures, planning to maintain a monthly launch rhythm in 2026. This category is expected to contribute positively to gross margins. The core IP operation for building block figures continues to deepen, with the Transformers series effectively covering price points from 9.9 yuan to 249 yuan, while new SKU specifications for Ultraman are stimulating demand. The company’s all-demographic strategy is expected to see an increase in adult-targeted products in the second half of 2025 [4]. Group 4: Strong International Performance - In the second half of 2025, the company’s overseas business is expected to continue high growth, with a projected doubling in performance. Thanks to pricing strategies and product strength, the company maintains a price advantage despite North American tariffs and has successfully entered mainstream channels like Walmart. North America is anticipated to become the largest single overseas market in 2026, while the company plans to expand its presence in Southeast Asia, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam, supported by logistics and warehousing. Additionally, the European team is currently being built, indicating significant future potential [5].
中金：维持布鲁可跑赢行业评级 下调目标价至100港元