Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-23 02:37Core Viewpoint - Despite the peak consumption period for pork approaching the Lunar New Year, pork prices have not significantly increased as expected, indicating a disruption in the traditional pork cycle due to oversupply and weak demand [1][8]. Industry Overview - The average price of live pigs in China has seen limited increases, with the national average price at 18.50 yuan per kilogram as of January 22, remaining stable from the previous day [1]. - The industry is attempting to stabilize prices by slowing down the outflow of live pigs, but consumer demand remains weak, suggesting that any price increases during the upcoming Spring Festival may not significantly impact consumer purchasing power [1]. - The overall market conditions in 2025 have led to increased pig output but decreased revenues for many listed pig companies, resulting in a general decline in performance [1][6]. Company Performance - Major pig farming companies, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, reported increased sales volumes but declining revenues due to falling average selling prices. For instance, Muyuan Foods sold 77.98 million pigs in 2025, with a revenue of 132.81 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.51% year-on-year [3][6]. - New Hope reported sales of 17.55 million pigs with a revenue of 23.20 billion yuan, but the average selling price dropped by 27.27%, leading to a 13.28% decline in revenue [4]. - Other companies like Jin Xin Nong and Tian Kang Biological also faced similar challenges of increased sales volume but decreased income [5]. Market Dynamics - The overall pork consumption in China has shown only a slight increase, with total consumption at approximately 5.8 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of just 1.5% [8]. - The restaurant sector, a significant consumer of pork, has struggled to recover, with a low performance index indicating reduced customer traffic and revenue [9]. - Household consumption of pork has declined, with per capita consumption dropping by 0.5 kg to 21.5 kg per year, as consumers shift towards poultry and beef due to health trends and better price-performance ratios [9][10]. Future Outlook - The industry anticipates a potential market improvement in the second half of 2026, although it may not surpass the conditions of 2025 [1][6]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.61 million, the lowest in five years, which may influence future supply dynamics [11]. - New Hope is planning to raise up to 3.8 billion yuan for debt repayment and investments in biosecurity and digital upgrades, indicating a strategic move to enhance operational efficiency [12].