浙商证券：美元降息周期纸浆价格强势 浆纸一体化龙头利好

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's entry into a rate-cutting cycle may stimulate demand while simultaneously weakening the profits of pulp companies in Brazil, leading to supply control and driving pulp prices upward [2] - The industry is currently at a valuation and profit bottom, with paper prices at historical low percentiles and pulp prices also at low levels, indicating a safety margin for the sector [2] - The historical negative correlation between pulp prices and the US dollar index suggests that the Fed's rate cuts could be a key catalyst for price increases in the pulp market [2] Group 2 - Supply of commodity pulp is slowing, with limited new overseas capacity expected after 2025, and domestic self-sufficient pulp production is projected to add approximately 660 million tons from 2025 to 2026 [3] - Short-term demand remains resilient, with global hardwood pulp shipments expected to increase by 7% year-on-year, primarily driven by demand from China [4] - Current inventory levels are at a medium-low position, with global hardwood pulp producer inventory days at 44.7 days, indicating a strong price outlook for Q1 2026 [4] Group 3 - The cost of pulp varies significantly based on raw materials, with domestic pulp relying on imported wood chips having a cash cost of approximately $480 per ton, while using domestic wood chips can reduce costs to $420 per ton [4]