嘉实成长派姚志鹏的“投资抉择”：提示科技“交易拥挤”，组合转向均衡

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant differentiation as of Q4 2025, with a focus on the balance between returns, cycles, and risks rather than just the correctness of investment directions [1] Group 1: Fund Manager Insights - Fund manager Yao Zhipeng has been with Harvest Fund since 2011, focusing on growth and industry directions, and has extensive experience managing various product types [1][2] - The total scale of products managed by Yao Zhipeng is approximately 20 billion yuan, with Harvest Power Pioneer being a representative product [2] Group 2: Portfolio Composition - The top ten holdings of Harvest Power Pioneer include Ningde Times, Xinda Bio, Hunan Youneng, WuXi AppTec, O-film Tech, Zhongkuang Resources, Putailai, Nongfu Spring, Tianqi Lithium, and Xiaopeng Motors, indicating a multi-line structure [2][3] - The portfolio is built on three clear lines: 1. New energy, lithium battery, and new energy vehicle industry chain [3] 2. Pharmaceutical and innovative assets, reflecting ongoing attention to the innovative drug industry chain [3] 3. Consumer goods, with Nongfu Spring being one of the few hundred billion-level products in the food and beverage sector [4] Group 3: Market Environment Analysis - The overall market in Q4 2025 is characterized by a steady rise, with good returns in commercial aerospace, copper and aluminum commodities, chemicals, communications, and insurance, while cyclical assets have adjusted [4][5] - Yao Zhipeng expresses a cautious and neutral stance on the technology sector, highlighting the crowded nature of tech investments and the reevaluation of risks associated with AI [5][6] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Investment Strategy - The primary task for the Chinese economy in 2026 is to expand domestic demand, which will likely influence investment directions [6][7] - Long-term favored directions include new energy, new technology, new consumption, and innovative drugs, focusing on lithium batteries, embodied intelligent applications, and consumer assets that align with improving consumption [7] - Attention is also drawn to the potential for foreign capital inflow due to the appreciation of the RMB and the attractiveness of leading companies in various industries [8][9] Group 5: Portfolio Adjustment Strategy - Yao Zhipeng plans to gradually increase allocations to domestic demand and cyclical leading assets, enhancing the balance of the portfolio while dynamically adjusting based on macro and mid-level environmental changes [8][9]