连平：2026年世界经济面临“四重变局”

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global economic recovery process will continue to face pressure in 2025 due to multiple shocks, including "reciprocal tariffs," deteriorating trade environments, increased foreign exchange market volatility, and intensified geopolitical conflicts [1] - In 2026, global economic growth is projected to slow down slightly to around 2.7%-3.1%, with emerging economies, particularly in Asia, continuing to show strong performance [2] - Developed economies are expected to experience low growth rates, with the US projected at 1.8%-2.2%, the Eurozone at 0.9%-1.2%, and Japan at 0.7%-0.9% [2] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Global inflation is expected to moderate from 3.4% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, creating favorable conditions for monetary policy adjustments and economic recovery [5] - The US may face inflation rebound pressures due to sticky service prices and the delayed effects of tariffs, which may not fully manifest until mid-2026 [5] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy may experience significant volatility, with potential for both accelerated rate cuts and rapid shifts to rate hikes depending on inflation trends [6] Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - The US-China economic relationship is expected to enter a phase of relative easing in 2026, moving towards selective cooperation in non-sensitive areas [9] - The US has acknowledged China's compliance with trade agreements and is seeking to rebalance trade, while China is promoting dialogue and cooperation in emerging industries [10] - Despite the easing, underlying tensions remain, particularly in high-tech sectors and potential military interventions by the US [10] Group 4: Global Trade Environment - The global trade environment is showing signs of weak recovery after significant disruptions caused by the US's "reciprocal tariffs" policy in 2025 [13] - The US is likely to pragmatically adjust its trade protection measures, potentially reducing tariffs and engaging in high-level negotiations with China [14] - "South-South trade" is expected to gain importance, with emerging economies seeking to reduce reliance on developed markets, projected to grow at 8% in 2025 [15] Group 5: Financial Market Dynamics - Global stock markets are anticipated to experience upward movement in 2026, driven by a continuation of the rate-cutting cycle and moderate corporate earnings recovery [21] - The US stock market may enter a "structural bull market" phase, characterized by high valuations and significant differentiation among sectors [21] - Emerging markets are expected to attract more investment due to favorable conditions, including policy support and competitive advantages in labor and resources [23] Group 6: Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar is projected to remain weak in 2026, influenced by declining interest rates and increasing government debt [24] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is expected to continue, impacting the dollar's dominance in global markets [26] - Gold prices are anticipated to experience high volatility but remain generally strong, driven by geopolitical risks and the weakening of the dollar [27]