政策与市场双轮驱动 REITs扩容激活商业地产新周期

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate investment trust (REITs) market, particularly in commercial real estate, is poised for significant expansion by the end of 2025, marking a pivotal shift in real estate financial policy and indicating a transition from "development and sales" to "operation and management" [1] Market Overview - The Chinese real estate market is currently in a phase of "stabilization," undergoing profound structural changes amid ongoing policy support and market adjustments [2] - The primary market for new homes shows signs of bottoming out due to policy incentives, while inventory pressure remains across various cities [2] - The secondary housing and office markets are characterized by a "price for volume" strategy to stimulate transaction activity [2] - The commercial retail market demonstrates resilience through consumption upgrades and inventory transformations, while the bulk investment market has cooled significantly, with institutional investors adopting a cautious stance [2] - In Beijing, the total transaction volume for bulk property investments in 2025 was approximately 23.88 billion yuan, a decline of over 30% year-on-year, reaching a low not seen in over a decade [2] Policy Changes and Institutional Reform - Recent years have seen a concentration of policy benefits in the residential sector, with insufficient attention to commercial real estate assets [3] - A series of high-profile policies aimed at addressing liquidity issues in commercial real estate were introduced at the end of 2025, including the release of the "63rd Document" and the "21st Announcement" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [3] - The "63rd Document" outlines a systematic framework for the high-quality development of the REITs market, while the "21st Announcement" initiates pilot programs for commercial real estate REITs, significantly broadening the scope of underlying assets [3] Commercial Real Estate and REITs - The inclusion of commercial real estate in the REITs framework is seen as a critical step in revitalizing the real estate sector, addressing the challenges of asset liquidity and promoting effective capital circulation [5] - The pilot policies set high-quality standards for underlying assets, compelling owners to enhance operational management to generate stable cash flows, thus creating a virtuous cycle of asset upgrading and capital recovery [6] - The move towards transparency and efficiency in the valuation of commercial real estate is expected to facilitate better asset pricing and liquidity premiums for quality projects [6] International Comparisons - The U.S. and Japan serve as benchmarks for successful REIT markets, where commercial real estate constitutes a significant portion of REIT market capitalization, underscoring its importance for long-term market health [7] - The expansion of China's REITs to include commercial real estate aligns with international best practices and signals a fundamental shift in the operational focus of real estate companies from high turnover development to sustainable cash flow management [7]