CICC(SH:601995) Huan Qiu Wang·2026-01-23 05:28Core Viewpoint - A significant wave of deposit maturities is expected in 2026, with estimates ranging from 60 trillion to 75 trillion yuan, raising questions about the future allocation of these funds in a declining interest rate environment [1][3]. Group 1: Deposit Maturity Impact - The total deposit maturity scale for this year is projected to exceed 55 trillion yuan, with specific estimates indicating 58.3 trillion yuan for medium and long-term deposits from households and enterprises [3]. - The maturity of deposits over one year is estimated to be around 50 trillion yuan, with two-year and three-year maturities exceeding 20 trillion yuan each, and five-year maturities between 5 trillion and 6 trillion yuan [3]. - The large-scale deposit maturity is expected to structurally lower banks' funding costs, alleviating net interest margin pressure, potentially reducing banks' funding costs by approximately 550 billion yuan and pushing down interest rates by 31 basis points [3]. Group 2: Asset Reallocation Trends - The low interest rate environment is anticipated to drive asset reallocation, with the average interest rate for one-year fixed deposits dropping from 1.566% in March 2025 to 1.277% in September 2025, and some banks reducing rates below 1% for deposits under one year [4]. - Despite the potential for asset reallocation, many deposits are expected to remain within the banking system due to stable risk preferences among residents and liquidity management needs [4][5]. - The shift from simple savings to diversified financial products is seen as a systemic adjustment, with funds likely flowing into wealth management, insurance, and funds, reshaping the asset management market [5]. Group 3: Asset Management Market Capacity - The asset management market has shown significant capacity for growth, with insurance asset management leading at 37.46 trillion yuan, public fund sizes reaching 37.02 trillion yuan, and bank wealth management growing to 33.2 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [6]. Group 4: Institutional Strategies - The "opening red" strategy in January is expected to coincide with the peak of deposit maturities, leading to differentiated strategies among financial institutions [7]. - Major state-owned banks are focusing on ecosystem building and customer retention through non-price strategies, while smaller banks are increasing deposit rates to stabilize their deposit base [7][8]. - Wealth management and fund companies are engaging in a "fee reduction wave," with many products seeing management fees drop to as low as 0.01% per year, aiming to attract market share [8].