主动基金2025年四季度在加仓顺周期、AI与非银金融，明显下调港股配置

Core Insights - The public fund quarterly report for Q4 2025 shows that both active and passive funds performed well, but there is a clear divergence in fund flows, with active equity funds experiencing a decline in scale while passive funds saw significant growth [1] Group 1: Fund Performance and Trends - Active equity funds have seen a decrease in scale, while passive funds have experienced a notable increase in net subscriptions, indicating a shift in investor preference [1][7] - Despite a market recovery, institutional funds are maintaining a cautious approach, as evidenced by a reduction in overall fund positions [1] - The concentration of holdings in active equity funds has increased, suggesting a focus on a few high-certainty directions rather than diversified allocations [1] Group 2: Active Fund Investment Strategies - Active funds have concentrated their investments in three main areas: cyclical sectors, AI, and non-bank financials, with a focus on cyclical and small-cap growth styles [2] - The cyclical sector has seen systematic increases in allocations, particularly in metals, chemicals, oil and gas, steel, and building materials, driven by a re-evaluation of resource pricing amid supply constraints and new demand from AI and renewable energy [3] - The AI industry chain is a key focus, with active funds investing in computing power and electricity sectors, as demand for high-performance chips and related hardware surges [4] - Non-bank financials, especially the insurance sector, are gaining traction due to favorable interest rate environments and improved investment returns, making them a significant area for active fund allocation [5] Group 3: Passive Fund Investment Strategies - Passive funds are reflecting a direct response to index weights and investor preferences, with increased allocations in telecommunications, metals, and banking, while reducing exposure to electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceuticals [6][7] - The structure of passive fund allocations shows a shift towards larger-cap stocks, with a decrease in the proportion of investments in smaller-cap indices [7] - There is a growing recognition of cyclical and value attributes among passive funds, as evidenced by increased allocations to value indices and a reduction in growth-oriented indices [7] Group 4: Market Signals and Strategic Adjustments - Active funds have significantly reduced their exposure to Hong Kong stocks, with the total value of heavy holdings dropping from 19.26% to 16.23% of total holdings, indicating a strategic repositioning [8] - The overall market environment in Q4 2025 did not exhibit extreme conditions, yet fund flows have shown a clear trend: passive funds are returning while active funds are consolidating, with a focus on cyclical and value investments alongside AI growth [8]