Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-23 06:20Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates a sustained tight supply-demand relationship in domestic routes, with expectations for moderate price increases in 2026 due to regulatory measures aimed at addressing low ticket prices. The international routes are anticipated to benefit from inbound tourism, leading to a gradual recovery in both volume and pricing by 2026 [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In December, the demand growth rate for the entire industry continued to exceed supply, with domestic passenger load factors increasing and international load factors showing a slight decline [1] - The combined ASK/RPK for six listed airlines in December showed a year-on-year increase of +6.6% and +9.1%, respectively, indicating a robust demand environment [1] - Domestic routes maintained low supply growth in December, with ASK/RPK increasing by +4.2% and +7.2%, achieving a passenger load factor of 85.7%, which is the highest level recorded for December [1] Group 2: Pricing Trends - December saw a slight year-on-year increase in domestic ticket prices, while international ticket prices experienced a decline [2] - The industry aircraft utilization rate remained high at 7.6 hours in December, with a slight decrease of -0.1% year-on-year, while wide-body aircraft utilization increased by +3.2% [2] - Domestic economy class ticket prices, including fuel surcharges, showed a year-on-year increase of +0.1%, while international ticket prices fell by -11.6% [2] Group 3: Fleet Expansion - The fleet of the six airlines grew by 0.4% month-on-month in December, with a total of 3,386 aircraft managed, reflecting a cumulative growth of +4.0% compared to the end of 2024 [3] - The majority of new aircraft deliveries were narrow-body models, particularly the A320 series, with 24 new narrow-body aircraft introduced in December [3]