NOA将不再是BEV专属？

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs' report titled "2026 Outlook: Navigating Divergence" highlights 2026 as a pivotal year for the adoption of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Navigation on Autopilot (NOA), suggesting that these technologies may develop into separate standards [1] - The report indicates a slowdown in BEV sales in Europe and the U.S., with consumers showing interest in advanced NOA but being cautious about purchasing BEVs [1][7] - In China, the integration of NOA in vehicles has led to a significant increase in sales, showcasing the advantages of BEVs in utilizing NOA, while traditional fuel vehicles are losing market share [1][5] Group 1: Market Trends - The market share of domestic brands in China has risen from 43.9% in 2017 to 51.9% in 2023, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increasing from 2.7% to 31.6% during the same period [3] - The report notes that the global electricity consumption of BEVs is expected to grow from 0.7% in 2024 to 2.5% by 2030, despite a stabilization in new BEV sales [7] - The competition landscape is shifting as NOA enhances the recognition and purchase intent for domestic brands, narrowing the gap with joint venture brands [5][6] Group 2: Technological Developments - Many automotive companies are focusing on applying NOA in hybrid models, although Goldman Sachs expresses skepticism about the medium-term effectiveness of this strategy [13] - The report lists various global automakers' progress in developing electronic and electrical architectures and end-to-end autonomous driving technologies, with companies like Tesla and BYD having completed their developments [14] - Traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers are exploring NOA applications in hybrid vehicles, but face challenges due to the inherent complexities of integrating NOA into their existing systems [15][16] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report suggests that by 2026, NOA may not solely rely on BEVs for growth, as traditional vehicles could also play a role in developing their own systems [19] - Concerns are raised about whether hybrid vehicles will be able to catch up with BEVs in terms of NOA capabilities, especially as BEVs are already testing Level 3 autonomous driving [19] - The future of NOA in traditional vehicles will depend on their ability to attract consumers and demonstrate value, as the market for traditional fuel vehicles remains substantial [19]