Core Viewpoint - The domestic oil prices are currently on an upward trend, but the rate of increase has significantly narrowed, with expectations of potential price adjustments in the upcoming cycle [1][3]. Oil Price Historical Context - In the second adjustment of 2026, gasoline and diesel prices increased by 85 yuan per ton, with a total price increase of 205 yuan per ton during the cycle due to a rebound in international oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions [3]. - As of now, the domestic fuel prices reflect the first increase of 2026, with gasoline prices rising to 0.07 yuan per liter, indicating that the cost for consumers remains relatively low compared to recent years [3]. Latest Oil Price Developments - The current adjustment cycle began on January 21, 2026, and is set to conclude on February 3, 2026, with initial expectations of a price increase of 125 yuan per ton due to strong international oil prices [5]. - However, recent declines in international oil prices, including a drop of 2.08% for WTI crude to $59.36 per barrel and a 1.81% drop for Brent crude to $64.06 per barrel, have led to a significant reduction in the expected price increase for domestic oil [5]. - The current average price of crude oil is $62.42 per barrel, with a reference change rate of 1.96%, suggesting a potential increase of 0.08 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel prices [5]. Market Outlook - The market is currently experiencing a positive trend in oil prices, but with the recent drop in international oil prices, there is a possibility of price adjustments downward in the domestic market if the trend continues [5]. - The increase in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories by 3 million barrels has strengthened expectations of oversupply, which could further influence domestic price movements [5].
1月23日【油价下跌】原油大降2%，新周期“2涨1跌”涨幅“大减30元/吨”，下次2月3日调价，油价“上涨变下跌”中
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-23 06:53