Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-23 07:06Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the positive outlook for Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) following its share buyback announcements, indicating strong confidence in its development and upgrading the rating from "Accumulate" to "Buy" [1][6]. Group 1: Share Buyback and Financial Performance - Pop Mart has conducted multiple share buybacks, including 1.4 million shares at prices ranging from HKD 177.7 to 181.2, totaling HKD 250 million, and 500,000 shares at an average price of HKD 192.9791, totaling HKD 96.49 million [1]. - The buyback shares are intended for cancellation to enhance earnings per share [1]. Group 2: Business Growth and IP Performance - The overall business performance is expected to exceed expectations, with a focus on offline shopping experiences and store operations, which may positively influence revenue growth despite online sales being affected by strategic channel balancing [2]. - In the first half of 2025, five major IPs generated over 1 billion yuan in revenue, with significant year-on-year growth rates for various IPs, including THEMONSTERS (+668.0%) and MOLLY (+73.5%) [3]. - The introduction of multi-IP product series has increased exposure and cross-selling opportunities among different IPs, contributing to strong sales performance [3]. Group 3: IP Development and Market Trends - The company continuously attracts top IP artists, ensuring a steady flow of design inspiration and maintaining a leading position in product development and IP management [4]. - The emotional consumption trend among youth is expected to drive the demand for collectible toys, with the market projected to reach a scale of 100 billion yuan by 2025 [5]. Group 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected revenues of 38.384 billion, 52.768 billion, and 65.698 billion yuan, respectively, and net profits of 13.291 billion, 18.599 billion, and 23.91 billion yuan [6]. - The latest stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 14, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting a positive investment outlook [6].