从极限施压到政策转向，美国对巴西关税“急转弯”的背后

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's imposition of high tariffs on Brazil has led to significant policy adjustments, with Brazil successfully diversifying its trade partners and achieving record export levels despite the tariffs [1][2][6]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy and Brazil's Response - In July 2025, the U.S. announced a 40% additional tariff on certain Brazilian goods, raising the total tariff rate on some exports to 50% [2][5]. - Contrary to expectations, Brazil's exports reached a historical high of $348.7 billion in 2025, marking a 3.5% increase from 2024 [2]. - Brazil's coffee export revenue hit $15.586 billion in 2025, a 24.1% increase from 2024, despite facing challenges such as reduced export volumes and increased U.S. tariffs [4][5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing U.S. Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. faced domestic supply shortages for coffee and beef, leading to increased prices and consumer dissatisfaction, which pressured the government to reconsider its tariff strategy [6][8]. - The U.S. domestic food price inflation was around 3%, with coffee prices rising by 21% and beef prices by nearly 14% year-on-year [6][8]. - The political landscape in the U.S. showed declining approval ratings for the current administration, with only about one-third of respondents approving of the handling of economic issues [8]. Group 3: Brazil's Trade Diversification Efforts - Brazil's government implemented measures such as fiscal support and price guarantees to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, while also seeking to expand into new markets [5][10]. - Exports to China increased by 28.6% from August to November 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, while exports to the U.S. decreased by 25.1% [5]. - The signing of a free trade agreement between the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) and the European Union on January 17, 2026, is expected to enhance Brazil's trade relations and economic growth [1][11][13].