Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-23 08:00Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts Tencent Holdings (00700) to achieve a total revenue of RMB 193.7 billion in Q4, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase, aligning with market expectations [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 65.6 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin rising by 2 percentage points to 34% [1] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is projected at RMB 7.13 [1] Group 1 - The company has lowered its adjusted EPS forecast for 2026 by 1% while maintaining a target price of HKD 750 and an "Overweight" rating [1] - Tencent's core engines in the WeChat ecosystem, advertising, and gaming business remain resilient, with expectations that AI's impact on stock performance will surpass profit growth expectations [1] - Compared to peers, Tencent's generative AI initiatives are still in the early stages regarding model demonstration and independent application momentum, as management prioritizes reliability, compliance, and ecosystem fit over scale expansion [1] Group 2 - This positioning prevents the stock from being excessively "AI-premium," and if the company can demonstrate clear execution and product-market fit this year, it will create upward value [1] - For the upcoming Q4 2025 financial report, the overall financial trajectory is expected to remain on track, with the main concern being whether macroeconomic weakness will affect advertising and other cyclical businesses [1] - Investors should pay attention to AI signals that can simultaneously influence market sentiment and fundamentals [1]