BlueberryMarkets：权衡数据及降息前景，美元指数企稳

Group 1 - The US dollar index stabilized around 98.30 after a 0.5% decline, reflecting market caution ahead of the upcoming S&P Global PMI data release [1] - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3%, indicating a relatively strong economic performance [3] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 200,000, lower than the market expectation of 212,000, suggesting a robust labor market [3] Group 2 - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, up from 2.7% in October, aligning with market expectations and impacting Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are as high as 95%, indicating a tendency towards easing despite positive economic growth data [3] - Ongoing trade tensions between the US and Europe, along with unclear terms of the US-NATO agreement, add complexity to the geopolitical landscape affecting the dollar [3][4] Group 3 - The potential actions from Europe regarding its substantial US asset holdings could introduce new uncertainties in global capital flows [4] - The stabilization of the dollar index may be temporary, constrained by high rate cut expectations and a complex geopolitical environment [4] - Future attention should be given to PMI data for economic validation and the actual evolution of US-EU relations, as the dollar faces both cyclical and structural challenges [4]