Asia-Potash(SZ:000893) 智通财经网·2026-01-23 08:14Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates a significant increase in domestic potassium fertilizer prices, which have risen by 50-100 yuan/ton since the beginning of the year, with current prices for domestic 60% white potassium at 3300 yuan/ton, border trade 62% white potassium at 3400 yuan/ton, and port 62% white potassium at 3500 yuan/ton. The global potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tight, and the industry is expected to remain highly prosperous for the next 2-3 years [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic potassium fertilizer inventory is at a low level, and there is an optimistic outlook for spring planting potassium fertilizer prices to rise [1]. - As of January 15, domestic potassium chloride port inventory was 2.51 million tons, a 3,000-ton increase month-on-month but a 450,000-ton decrease year-on-year, with a need for 1.5 million tons of state reserves to be replenished [1]. - The annual potassium fertilizer "big contract" for 2025 was signed at $348/ton, a $2 increase year-on-year, primarily due to significant pressure for spring supply [1]. Group 2: Global Market Dynamics - The global potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tight, with strong demand from China, India, and Brazil, and low current inventory levels, indicating substantial potential for price increases [2][3]. - In December, domestic potassium chloride imports were 1.46 million tons, a 3% year-on-year increase and a 15% month-on-month increase, with a total expected import of 12.61 million tons for 2025, remaining flat year-on-year [2]. - The supply side is not expected to see new capacity additions in 2025, with only limited capacity expected from companies like Yara International and the Nezhinsky mine in Belarus in 2026-2027 [2]. Group 3: Fertilizer Price Trends - The global fertilizer market is entering a high-price and tight balance phase, with nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer supply disruptions causing price increases, while potassium fertilizer remains a cost-effective option [3]. - The FOB price for Middle Eastern granular urea is currently between $420-430/ton, and the CFR price for urea in Brazil and Southeast Asia is between $430-440/ton, indicating a new high price platform for global urea [3]. - The price of MAP and DAP in Brazil has increased by approximately $40/ton since the beginning of the year, with current CFR prices between $680-700/ton, supported by rising production costs [3].