国信证券：2026年氯化钾需求、价格有望超预期 建议关注龙头亚钾国际

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates a significant increase in domestic potassium fertilizer prices, with expectations of a high industry boom over the next 2-3 years due to tight global supply and demand [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic potassium fertilizer prices have risen by 50-100 yuan/ton since the beginning of the year, with current prices at 3,300 yuan/ton for 60% white potassium, 3,400 yuan/ton for border trade 62% white potassium, and 3,500 yuan/ton for port 62% white potassium [1]. - The domestic potassium chloride inventory is low, with a current port inventory of 2.51 million tons, which is a year-on-year decrease of 450,000 tons [1]. - The demand for potassium fertilizer during the spring farming season accounts for approximately 50% of the annual consumption, leading to expectations of price increases due to low inventory levels [1]. Group 2: Global Market Dynamics - Global potassium fertilizer supply is tight, with strong demand from China, India, and Brazil, and low current inventory levels, indicating significant potential for price increases [2][3]. - The import of potassium chloride in December was 1.46 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 15% [2]. - The supply side is expected to see no new capacity additions in 2025, with only limited capacity expected from companies like Yara International and Belarus in the following years [2]. Group 3: Fertilizer Price Comparisons - The global fertilizer market is experiencing high prices and tight balances, with nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers facing supply disruptions that are pushing prices higher [3]. - The price of nitrogen fertilizers has reached a new high, with Middle Eastern granular urea prices at 420-430 USD/ton, while phosphorus fertilizer prices have also increased due to reduced exports from China [3]. - Potassium fertilizer remains competitively priced, with current CFR prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia at 360-380 USD/ton, making it a cost-effective option compared to nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers [3].