What Costco Needs to Prove in 2026

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale enters 2026 with strong membership growth, high renewal rates, and steady business compounding, but the stock trades at a premium valuation with elevated expectations [1][2] Membership Growth - Membership revenue reached $5.3 billion in 2025, driven by increased paid memberships and a fee hike in late 2024, with global renewal rates near 90% [4] - In 2026, the focus will be on maintaining membership momentum without another fee increase, emphasizing the need for growth through volume rather than pricing [5] - Continued growth in paid memberships and stable renewal rates in newer markets will indicate the strength of Costco's membership value proposition [6] International Expansion - Costco's growth increasingly relies on international markets, with over 900 warehouses globally and significant potential in high-income regions like China [7] - The challenge for 2026 is not just opening more international warehouses but ensuring they develop high-quality, high-renewal membership bases similar to North America [8] - Investors will monitor paid memberships and renewal rates in newer markets, as store openings become less critical compared to renewal rates, margins, and returns [9]