日元惊魂！盘中突拉200点，干预疑云笼罩

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen weakened after the Bank of Japan maintained interest rates, raising concerns about potential intervention to prevent the yen from hitting multi-year lows [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The USD/JPY exchange rate fell to a low of 157.33, dropping nearly 200 points from its daily high, before rebounding and nearly erasing all gains [1]. - The dollar index experienced a significant drop during the trading session, although the reasons behind these movements remain unclear [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - Traders are on alert for possible intervention by Japanese authorities as the USD/JPY approaches the 160 mark, with some analysts suggesting it is too early to confirm any intervention [2]. - The recent price fluctuations of the yen resemble previous "currency tests" conducted by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, which typically precede actual intervention actions [3]. Group 3: Intervention Insights - The purpose of the "currency test" is to provide a warning to the market before any intervention measures are taken, allowing for a more cautious approach to betting against the yen [4]. - Analysts believe that while intervention may provide short-term relief for the yen, it will not change the overall trend unless the Bank of Japan adopts a more hawkish stance and accelerates policy normalization [4]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate was accompanied by an upward revision of inflation expectations, suggesting that the next rate hike may occur sooner than previously anticipated [4]. - The chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence indicated that the recent depreciation of the yen is influenced by rising inflation expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of continued rate hikes [4].