中国拯救世界！美媒感慨：要不是中国反抗特朗普，全球已经大萧条

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of trade protectionism under Trump's administration, highlighting the impact of tariffs on global trade dynamics and China's strategic response to these measures [2][4][6]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation and Impact - Trump signed an executive order on April 2, 2025, imposing a baseline tariff rate of 10% on global trade partners, with an additional 34% on Chinese goods, resulting in a total tariff rate of 54% on China [2]. - Other countries faced significant tariffs as well, with Vietnam at 46%, Thailand at 37%, Indonesia at 32%, and Malaysia at 24%, disrupting global supply chains [2]. - The U.S. aimed to protect domestic manufacturing and jobs, but the tariffs led to chaos in global supply chains [2]. Group 2: China's Response and Trade Strategy - China retaliated on April 4, 2025, by imposing a 34% tariff on U.S. imports and enhancing export controls on critical materials like rare earths, which are essential for high-tech and defense industries [2]. - Despite a decline in exports to the U.S., China's overall exports grew robustly, achieving a trade surplus of $1.19 trillion in 2025, thanks to diversified trade relationships and a complete industrial system [2][8]. - China has shifted its focus to ASEAN, Europe, and Africa, reducing reliance on the U.S. market while maintaining a significant share of global manufacturing at nearly 30% [8][10]. Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics and Reactions - The global trade system has been fragmented, with the WTO rules becoming marginalized and supply chain stability being used as a negotiation tool [4]. - Countries like the EU, Japan, and South Korea, which are heavily reliant on the U.S. market, have limited options and have made small concessions [4]. - The article warns that if China were to concede to U.S. demands, it could lead to a broader trend of protectionism and market fragmentation reminiscent of the 1930s Great Depression [8][10]. Group 4: Economic Projections and Future Outlook - By October 26, 2025, a framework agreement was reached between the U.S. and China to avoid further tariff escalations, with the U.S. reducing some tariffs and China pausing retaliatory measures [10]. - China's economic growth rate is projected to reach 5% in 2025, with a record trade surplus, while the global economy is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2026, with China at 4.5% and the U.S. at 2.4% [10]. - The article concludes that the trade war has reshaped global dynamics, with China's resilience providing stability and demonstrating that challenges to hegemony are possible [10].