年度总结·环己酮：年内跌幅明显，2026年反弹动力不足

Core Viewpoint - The price of cyclohexanone is expected to experience a significant decline in 2025, with limited rebound potential in 2026 due to weak demand and strong bargaining power from downstream sectors [1][8]. Price Trends - In 2025, the average price of cyclohexanone in China was 7644 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.66% compared to the previous year [1]. - The price fluctuated significantly throughout the year, peaking at 9400 yuan/ton in mid-February and dropping to a low of 6500 yuan/ton in mid-November, resulting in a price range of 2900 yuan/ton [2]. Cost Factors - The price of pure benzene, a key raw material for cyclohexanone, averaged 6201 yuan/ton in 2025, down 25.28% year-on-year, which heavily impacted cyclohexanone prices [4]. - The cost pressure from pure benzene, combined with weak demand, led to a significant decline in cyclohexanone prices throughout the year [4][9]. Profitability - The cyclohexanone industry faced severe losses in 2025, with some periods showing losses of up to 450 yuan per ton, exacerbated by supply-demand imbalances and rising operational costs [4][9]. - The industry's weak pricing power resulted in a cycle of "losses—low prices—inventory reduction," further locking prices at low levels [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Cyclohexanone production in 2025 was approximately 8.45 million tons, a 5.64% increase from the previous year, while the average operating rate was 61%, down 6 percentage points [6]. - The market faced a supply-demand imbalance, with excess supply leading to increased competition and downward pressure on prices [6][10]. - In 2026, no new production capacity for cyclohexanone is expected, maintaining a production capacity of 10.21 million tons, while downstream demand remains weak [9][10]. Future Outlook - The cyclohexanone market in 2026 is anticipated to remain under pressure, with limited cost support and ongoing supply-demand imbalances, leading to a forecasted average price around 6900 yuan/ton, with a potential decline of less than 10% [10].