Changshu Bank(SH:601128) Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao·2026-01-23 09:29Core Viewpoint - A significant surge in the issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) by small and medium-sized banks has been observed, reflecting a shift towards short-term products in response to a challenging interest margin environment [1][4]. Group 1: Issuance Trends - As of January 22, at least 234 new large-denomination CDs from small and medium-sized banks have been launched, indicating a robust issuance trend [2]. - On January 22 alone, five banks issued a total of 12 new CD products, with Changshu Bank notably offering multiple series of CDs [2]. Group 2: Characteristics of New Products - The newly issued CDs exhibit a clear trend towards shorter maturities, with half of the products from Changshu Bank having a duration of only six months, and the longest being two years [3]. - Personal large-denomination CDs are increasingly difficult to find in five-year terms, with one- to two-year products dominating the market [3]. Group 3: Interest Rates - The annualized interest rates for personal large-denomination CDs from small and medium-sized banks have generally fallen to the "1" range, yet remain competitive compared to state-owned banks [3]. - For three-year CDs, interest rates are typically in the range of 1.75% to 1.85%, while one- and two-year products generally offer rates between 1.35% and 1.5% [3]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The trend towards short-term products reflects banks' proactive measures to adapt to a low net interest margin environment, as they seek to stabilize profits by reducing or halting high-cost long-term deposits [4]. - The upcoming maturity of approximately 32 trillion yuan in long-term deposits by 2026, with a significant portion maturing in the first quarter, indicates a shift in deposit re-pricing dynamics [4]. Group 5: Deposit Migration - The ongoing decline in deposit rates and the phenomenon of "deposit migration" are critical market concerns, with a projected 6 trillion yuan in excess savings formed by residents from 2022 to 2025 [5]. - Despite a recovering capital market, residents' investment and consumption tendencies have not significantly improved, suggesting that deposit migration is more about asset allocation adjustments rather than a fundamental change in risk appetite [5][6].