取消出口退税、电动车限价！中国外贸要反内卷了？

Core Viewpoint - China is undergoing a significant transformation in its foreign trade policy, moving away from a low-price export model to a more balanced and sustainable approach, aiming to reclaim pricing power and reduce reliance on government subsidies [1][21]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Starting from April 1, 2026, China will eliminate export tax rebates for photovoltaic products and reduce the rebate rate for electronic products from 9% to 6% [4]. - The policy targets not only end products but also intermediate goods such as battery cells, silicon wafers, and glass, aiming to dismantle the lowest price system and ensure global customers pay for actual production costs [4][8]. Group 2: Economic Imbalance - The primary reason for these changes is to address the economic imbalance caused by excessive competition in industries like photovoltaics and electronics, where subsidies have led to unsustainable pricing strategies [3][12]. - The current structure has locked many Chinese manufacturers into low-margin roles within the global supply chain, necessitating policy interventions to shift this dynamic [12][19]. Group 3: Strategic Objectives - The government aims to stop subsidizing global consumption by eliminating export tax rebates, thereby encouraging companies to raise prices and reflect true production costs [8][14]. - The strategy includes three main objectives: to stop the government from subsidizing companies excessively, to compel companies to increase prices, and to regain pricing power in sectors where China holds a dominant position [8][19]. Group 4: Future Directions - The government is exploring three macroeconomic paths: a gradual appreciation of the currency, potential monetary easing under pressure, or structural reforms that may involve significant short-term costs but could lead to long-term efficiency gains [16]. - Companies are encouraged to adopt one of three strategies: strengthen their capabilities in core components and technologies, build their own brands for better pricing power, or relocate assembly lines abroad to mitigate cost risks [17][19]. Group 5: Conclusion - The combination of eliminating tax rebates, imposing price limits, and engaging in political negotiations signifies a restructuring of the foreign trade pricing system, moving away from traditional surplus strategies [21]. - The focus is on raising export standards and reclaiming influence in global markets, marking a pivotal moment in China's economic transformation [21].