特朗普敲定美联储主席人选进入倒计时，交易员将迎来压力测试

Core Viewpoint - Bond investors have been betting that the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will push for interest rate cuts, and this speculation will face a test as President Donald Trump is expected to announce his nominee soon [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Expectations - The market has assumed that all four final candidates for the Fed chairmanship will align with Trump's repeated calls for rate cuts, leading to a phenomenon known as "steepening of the yield curve," where short-term Treasury yields outperform long-term ones [1] - If investors worry that Trump's nominee may undermine the Fed's independence, the market might raise borrowing costs to offset the economic boost from official rate cuts, potentially increasing price pressures [1] - A recent market movement occurred when Trump signaled reluctance to appoint Kevin Hassett, previously a leading candidate, resulting in a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries and a reduction in the market's pricing of rate cuts to less than two times this year [1] Group 2: Candidate Analysis - Kevin Walsh: Has a 44% nomination probability and is viewed as relatively hawkish. His potential appointment could lead to higher Treasury yields, and he may advocate for a combination of "balance sheet reduction + rate cuts," which could negatively impact inflation-linked long-term bonds [3] - Rick Reed: With a 32% nomination probability, he is seen as a potential dove, and his initial appointment might lead to a weaker dollar and a steepening yield curve. He has suggested that two rate cuts this year to around 3% would be appropriate [4] - Christopher Waller: Holds a 13% nomination probability and is considered a "safe choice." His appointment may lead to a slight decrease in long-term Treasury yields and a flatter yield curve [5] - Kevin Hassett: Has a 5% nomination probability. Recent signals from Trump suggest a preference for Hassett, which could lead to lower short-term rates but higher long-term rates. However, his nomination prospects have dimmed due to political backlash [6][7]