A股“躁动”与港股“失速”——公募基金缘何减配港股？

Group 1 - The overall positioning of public funds has become clearer with the completion of the 2025 Q4 reports, showing a notable shift towards cyclical and small-cap growth stocks, while the allocation to Hong Kong stocks has decreased significantly from 19.26% to 16.23% [1] - The decline in the strategic position of Hong Kong stocks within active equity funds contrasts with the upward trend in the A-share market, raising concerns about the future performance of Hong Kong stocks [1] - The A-share market has shown a strong growth style, with significant thematic investment in sectors like commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence hardware, which are less represented in the Hong Kong market [2] Group 2 - Hong Kong stocks are facing dual pressures on liquidity, both from external factors and southbound capital, making them more sensitive to liquidity changes compared to A-shares [3] - Despite a record inflow of 1.4 trillion RMB from southbound capital in 2025, the pace has slowed significantly in Q4, with daily average inflows dropping to 10.9 million HKD in December [3] - The IPO market in Hong Kong has thrived, with 117 IPOs raising 285.9 billion HKD in 2025, marking a return to the top globally, but a potential wave of lock-up expirations could pose challenges [4][5] Group 3 - The upcoming lock-up expirations for major companies listed in the first half of 2025 could lead to significant selling pressure, with an estimated 120 billion HKD in potential unlocks by December [4] - Historical patterns indicate that lock-up expirations have coincided with declines in the Hong Kong market, although strong-performing companies may still attract new investments [5] - The market's current dynamics suggest that while there may be selling pressure from lock-up expirations, the presence of new buying forces could offset this impact [5]